How to calculate the chances of reaching a certain success level prior to failed channeling?

In Warhammer 4e casters can use channeling in order to gain success level prior to casting a spell. Success levels are essentially for every 10 you exceed the skill number you gain a success level and they keep piling up till you make a failed roll.

As a wizard I am trying to figure out how to calculate the probability of piling up enough SL’s before failing channeling and suffering a miscast.

What I wish to ask if how can I calculate my odds of reaching a certain SL prior to suffering a miscast (Making a failed roll) and losing all of my SL? (Note that the system uses a d100 and you try to roll below your skill.)