How to calculate the chances of reaching a certain success level prior to failed channeling?

In Warhammer 4e casters can use channeling in order to gain success level prior to casting a spell. Success levels are essentially for every 10 you exceed the skill number you gain a success level and they keep piling up till you make a failed roll.

As a wizard I am trying to figure out how to calculate the probability of piling up enough SL’s before failing channeling and suffering a miscast.

What I wish to ask if how can I calculate my odds of reaching a certain SL prior to suffering a miscast (Making a failed roll) and losing all of my SL? (Note that the system uses a d100 and you try to roll below your skill.)

Chances of specific sequence in X amount of dice?

So after fumbling around in AnyDice for awhile, I’m struggling to find a solution. Here’s what I’m looking for:

  • What are the chances of rolling a specific number that matches a specific sequence in order in multiple dice?
  • For example, in Xd6, I’m trying to figure out what that chances of rolling a 5+, THEN a 4+ in the remaining dice (as long as I get a 5+ first), then a 3+ in the remaining dice (as long as I get the 5+ and 4+ previously).
  • Bonus cookies and many thanks to you if your function allows me to easily change the numbers I’m looking for (like if I’m trying to find a 4+, 2+,5+ in that order)

Basically, a player rolls Xd6 and tries to match their different specific number sets, like 3+, 3+, 2+ or 1, 2, 3, exactly or 4+, 2, 6

How does releasing exfiltrated data increase the chances of an attacker getting caught?

I’m reading an article from the Institute for Applied Network Security (IANS) titled "Ransomware 2.0: What It Is and What To Do About It", and there’s a piece I don’t understand. The article requires a subscription, but here’s the excerpt (emphasis mine):

[Attackers] typically threaten to release confidential data to the internet or dark web if the victim refuses to pay. This extortion tactic is fairly new and it is unclear whether it will become more prevalent. If it does, it is uncertain whether attackers will release the data they’ve exfiltrated (and even how much data they’ve exfiltrated in the first place). Obviously, the more data an attacker exfiltrates, the higher they raise their profile and the more likely they are to be caught before the encryption phase. Therefore, unlike attackers motivated by IP theft, Ransomware 2.0 attackers have an incentive to minimize their data exfiltration.

Why would attackers not follow through with the threat of releasing this data? Does exfiltrating more data give forensic scientists, network admins, and the like better insight into the anomalous and malicious behavior–and shouldn’t attackers sufficiently cover their tracks? If not, how is the attacker profile increased with the volume of exfiltrated data published?

Theoretical question about Zobrist hashing and chances of collision with slight modification

I’m using zobrist hashing, but for certain positions I want to put them in the cache but make them unique. This is what I’m doing:

quint64 hash = position.zobristHash(); if (makeItUnique)     hash ^= reinterpret_cast<quint64>(this); 

Is there any reason to suppose that what I’m doing will increase the likelihood of hash collisions?

Chances to roll a number of results greater than 5 on a number of d10s

I’m trying to figure out how to implement a dice roller function.

I would like to know the chance in % to get [1 to X] results of 6+ on [1 to 10] 10-sided dice. So, for example, I would like to know the probabilities of 5 10-sided dice resulting in 3 results of 6+ (this is just one set of 10-sided dice I’m curious about).

Thanks a lot for your help.

What are the chances that authorities spy people’s devices?

I wanted to figure out whether authorities can potentially, not in terms of whether they are allowed to, spy people’s smartphones activities such as e-amail, whatsapp chats, and so on. I don’t mean the FBi or NSA techniques used to catch dangerous people or whoever is highly harmful to the society, but I mean whether simple police stuff could possibly spy, for example, small drug dealers phones in order to dismantle their plans and so forth.

New to D&D, chances on ability checks [on hold]

I’m going through the DM Guide and I see that DCs should be based on the “average person”. What I’m having a hard time with is that if someone has a +5 in history(quite knowledgable), and the task is “hard”(dc20) then they still only have a 1/4th chance of success.

It seems to me the chances don’t quite add up.

Do I have this correct? How can I (or should I?) express that a person who doesn’t know History has no chance of passing a history check, but a historian should probably have a better than 1/4th chance.

I am a player now, but wish to be a DM in the future.

I guess my bigger issue is the difference between an average person and someone who is well trained. Someone with a 0 in Arcana has a 25% chance of success against a “medium(dc15)” task. Where as someone well trained in magic(+5 arcana) has only a 50% chance. That seems quite out of whack to me.

What are the chances of me actually getting a schengen visa if i’m from Iraq? [on hold]

I’m from Iraq and recently my university made a collaboration with a German university where the top 3 students are granted a Schengen visa as well as a one-month internship at a company there. I happen to be the top of my class and in fact, I was offered this trip. however, due to a problem with my passport renewal. I wasn’t able to provide the necessary documents in time and therefore, I lost this opportunity. but I was told that I could still get the internship if I’m able to get the visa on my own.

I read the information and the requirements of the Schengen visa on this website. and I can fulfill all of the requirements such as a bank statement, health insurance, etc. but with that said and with the recent problem with immigration I do believe that even with all of the requirements fulfilled its still a hit or miss. so can anyone tell me what actually are my chances of getting the visa?

Family and Friends Visa in Belgium, chances for approval?

and thank you for reading, I applied for friends and family visa for Belgium at the beginning of April, I would be arriving on June 22. I already have the plane tickets/ hotels booked and paid for. It’s taking a very long time to give me an answer. because my application got send to the immigration office in Brussels. and since it was at immigration it was considered as short term thus “tourist”. It also seems that my passport is in Belgium too ( don’t know why though). My question is how are the chances that I will be refused? Is there a chance I would be accepted but it would be too late to take my trip since my passport has to come back from Belgium?

For more information, I am from Jordan and I just finished my masters so no job, but I have money saved and my trip is funded by two parties who signed an obligation: a Belgian citizen and my family. I also have an invitation letter from the Belgian citizen, pictures of us together proving we actually know each other and proof of my applications for Ph.D.’s in Europe (as proof I won’t run away and mess up those chances).

If I don’t travel on a UK visit visa and it expires, will it hurt my chances of getting a visa in the future?

I’m from Pakistan and I applied for a UK visitor visa for a company trip that got cancelled. However, my visa application was successful and I now have a valid 6-month visit visa to the United Kingdom. Now I hear from a bunch of people that if you don’t travel on a visitor visa to the UK and it expires, your chances of ever getting a visa to the UK again are almost nonexistent. I obviously cannot find any such thing on any official source. Can anybody here share what they know on whether that’s actually the case or not?