How to calculate the chances of reaching a certain success level prior to failed channeling?

In Warhammer 4e casters can use channeling in order to gain success level prior to casting a spell. Success levels are essentially for every 10 you exceed the skill number you gain a success level and they keep piling up till you make a failed roll.

As a wizard I am trying to figure out how to calculate the probability of piling up enough SL’s before failing channeling and suffering a miscast.

What I wish to ask if how can I calculate my odds of reaching a certain SL prior to suffering a miscast (Making a failed roll) and losing all of my SL? (Note that the system uses a d100 and you try to roll below your skill.)

Storyteller Number Success Counter for Aberrant

Any program that counts a set of numbers that "succeed" (i.e being GREATER THAN the set target number) over a variable DC between 1 – 10? I ask this due to a certain system called the "Storyteller" system. In this system the ST / Storyteller (essentially the "Dungeon Master") can set an aforementioned DC number between 1 – 10 whenever a Player or NPC wants to do an action.

The nominal DC for most actions is 6, but is adjusted higher for more difficult tasks and more lower for trivial tasks.

The slight trouble arises when playing a specific game called "Aberrant". I have a separate Dice Rolling program for my own use, but I need another program that automatically counts a specific set of numbers as I’ve said. This due to the fact that certain genned characters can have high stat values.

For instance (this is an example character); a certain character could have Armor (Armor as in naturally occurring in their body, which can range from rocky scales, hardened fur, or just normal seemingly tough skin). Each "dot" (or point if you will) in "Armor" gives +3 Soak. So if this character has maxed Armor of 5 dots, they’d have a pool of 15 soak against damages down to them.

Next if the character has Stamina 5 and Mega-Stamina 5, they gain +10 extra soak.

Now lets also say our character has the power "Bodymorph". Within the general schema players or the ST in general for genning up an NPC can determine the state of matter / energy the character can change into. So if the character specialized in a "Steel" Bodymorph and allocated their dots to have "Armor, Armor, Armor, Armor, Density Control (Increase)"; that can add +12 extra soak count the 4 Armor powers inputted into Bodymorph.

Totaling all of this, the this can amount to a soak pool of 37. The Dice Program I have can roll up to a 1000 dice, but the program is it wasn’t made for the Storyteller system in mind and doesn’t automatically count for you "Successes". Is anyone aware or know of any program I can use for counting numbers over a set "target" DC number?

Because lets say I roll a 123d10 and come with a set of numbers like this:

1 4 6 2 2 10 7 2 7 9 2 8 2 9 10 5 3 2 1 4 4 8 2 7 8 7 10 10 3 7 8 9 1 10 6 9 3 6 10 9 7 3 5 5 5 6 3 1 3 9 1 1 4 5 5 4 8 1 10 7 3 4 8 3 4 7 9 3 6 3 10 6 10 10 5 2 5 2 3 8 3 5 4 8 7 1 6 10 9 8 10 4 6 10 8 10 4 3 9 9 6 10 1 2 10 6 8 8 8 9 3 5 6 2 4 4 7 8 8 7 2 5 3

I’d be quite tedious to manually count them all specifically to see which number has met at or passed "6" everytime when rolling for a high statted character of somesort.

How to handle degrees of success in roll under systems

I’m working on an RPG system that uses 2d6 roll under Skill for resolutions. On paper this system looks really good so far, but I have one major issue: Degrees of Success, especially when it comes to Contest (Skill vs Skill) resolutions.

Status Quo

Your character’s Attribute + Skill (e.g. Charisma + Persuasion) form a Target Number that’s between 2 and 12. You roll 2d6, sum them, and the sum has to be equal to or lower than the Target Number. Rolling a 1 has a special positive meaning, rolling a 6 has a special negative meaning. Additionally, 2 ones are always a success, 2 sixes are always a failure, regardless of Skill.

The problem

Imagine 2 parties contesting each other:

  • Character A has a Target Number of 5 (pretty bad), and character B has a Target Number of 10 (pretty good).
  • Character A rolls a 5 and succeeds. Character B and rolls a 6 and succeeds.
  • Character B has the better Degree of Success, as the margin between the player’s roll and the character’s Skill is bigger than for Character A.

If you say that lower is better, a character with Target Number 2 (very, very bad), who rolled a 2, will always have a better Degree of Success over a character with a Target Number 12 (very, very good), who rolled a 3.

Naive solution

My approach was to subtract the rolled number from the character’s Skill. You have a Target Number of 6 and rolled a 4? 6-4=2. You have a Target Number of 11 and rolled a 3? 11-3=8. It works, but I’m worried that this resolution will be too slow for actual play – we all know these sessions that last for hours and nobody is able to count straight anymore.

The best solution would allow a player to determine the Degree of Success/Failure in the same step to see if the character succeeded or not.

Other systems

Other systems that handle Degrees of Success for rolling under mechanics:

  • Call of Cthulhu: You have certain threesholds (half your skill, 1/5 your skill) at which you score an increased Degree of Success. – very coarse when you only have 2d6 instead of a 1d100 (but could work)
  • Unknown Armies: Basically like Black Jack–you roll under your Skill threshold, but as high as possible. Doubles (11, 22, 33) are criticals. – sadly doesn’t work, as ones and sixes have a special meaning. Flipping the meaning (6 is good, 1 is bad) also is iffy, as it’s flipping the understanding, that you have to roll under a threshold.
  • ???

What other systems or resolution systems are there, that tackle this problem?

How do criticals interact with degrees of success for attacks in PF2E?

Let’s say my character Strikes an enemy with AC 40. My attack bonus is only +10, so barring crits, it’s impossible for me to get through his AC.

I roll a natural 20, making my total 30 vs his 40 AC. Is this attack treated as a regular hit, because it would have been a failure but the nat 20 improves the degree of success by one step? Or is it treated as a critical hit, because it’s a nat 20?

Similarly, if I’m subjected to a spell with a saving throw I can only fail at, and I roll a nat 20, does that mean I reach a success on the saving throw or a critical success?

ANYDICE – Help with a dice pool showing success against a range of target numbers

I’m having a hard time coding an anydice script to show what I want.

Let me contextualize the mechanic I’m trying to simulate:

You roll a POOL of d10 against a TARGET number. If at least one die from the POOL is equal to or higher than the TARGET, the roll is a success. The count of such dice is the degree of success, but that isn’t my focus at the moment.

I’d like to have a graph for the chances of success of various POOLs of different sizes up to 10 (1d10, 2d10, 3d10…10d10) against different TARGETs from 2 to 10 (2, 3, 4… 10).

The caveat is: I’d like the graph to be layed out in such a way that:

  • the x axis represents the TARGETs;
  • the y axis represents the chances of at least 1 success;
  • each line represents a POOL,

so I can see the chances that each POOL has to succeed against a whole range of TARGETs.

Can any anydice wizard help me with this, please?

How to stop players from trying to gauge success of meta-ideas via meta questions?

I am running a campaign in The Dark Eye, the Year of the Griffon to be exact.

Due to having quite an abundant downtime by having taken initiative quite early

the group had about 2 and a half months of downtime. That in itself is not a problem. Yet my group did spend the downtime in ways that start to make me think carefully: The siege-engineer did recruit all the carpenters and masons to fix up the walls

while the Maga did start to research a variant of Greek fire. That luckily took her most of the time… But exactly there lies the problem:

My players are all students, some of them with at least a good degree of chemistry and physics knowledge (including the Maga, who has 2 semesters of chemistry behind her). As a result, they tend to come up with ideas that make incredible sense in themselves… but the rules for TDE explicitly state that some stuff is simply not possible. For the most part, they did swallow that gunpowder simply can’t be made due to “it’s just like that” and that the recipe for fireworks is not only highly complex but also so arcane, that nobody knows it.

YET this makes them try to figure out how to use the little Greek fire they managed to produce up to now (4 flasks) much more efficiently – as in getting more area of effect. While they did not yet test it, they had ideas like

  • How about training a dog to carry a jar of greek fire into the orc camp and then shoot the jar from the walls with a flaming arrow?

On ideas like this I did say up to now “I did look into that topic in the books and I will have to make a ruling as there are no rules written yet. I have a vague idea how to rule on it, but would you mind stopping to speak in hypotheticals and bring this up in character through action or prompting that in an officer’s meeting?” Pretty much I try to go by In Character Action = In Character Consequences and Not Said = Not Done.

The idea to weaponize the results of a failure on the alchemy I could squat luckily: “You don’t exactly know how you made it create the poison gas it made… you could try to recreate the experiment though. Do you want that?”

Up to now, the only three things they did act on based on sentences like those was to build up some siege engines for defense (a trebuchet, 2 catapults, repairing one ballista), re-inventing greek fire (which did blow up the Maga twice already for it is so dangerous to work with as established in the rules) and digging ramparts1 around the city wall (ongoing, they are about 2/3rds done) and will be finished by the end of the months.


How can I discourage the players from directly adapting ideas from modern warfare methods (like gas, using chemical waste (dioxin) or trained dogs with bombs) and instead staying in the established canon, that puts greek fire at the pinnacle of chemical warfare and lobbing corpses as the pinnacle of biological warfare?


1 – Yes, they made Ramparts, not moats.

URL editing shows success message, but doesn’t carry out function

I’ve been looking into my college’s internal alumni network. In that we can send connections to users and when you send a connection request, you’re taken to a url which is: https://www.website.com/yourwall/sent-invite/username/?Sendcon=true And a message

Your invitation to Name was sent.

is displayed where ‘Name’ is the name of the user associated with ‘username’ Even though we get a success message, the connection request is not sent. And if we supply an invalid ‘username’ parameter into the url we still get a success message but as:

Your invitation to {:user} was sent.

Could this be a vulnerability? How can it be exploited and mitigated?